Predicting Patent Challenges for Small-Molecule Drugs: A Cross-Sectional Study

Memedovich A, Steele B, Orr T, Chaudhry S, Tadrous M, Kesselheim AS, Hollis A, Beall RF - PLOS Medicine

  • Innovation Incentives and Competition

Summary:

The authors used supervised machine learning techniques to predict Paragraph IV patent challenges within a branded drug’s first year of eligibility, finding that drugs with large market sizes are more likely to face patent challenges in the first year, while anti-infective drugs and those with fast track designations were less likely to be challenged, demonstrating inconsistencies in generic entry across the prescription drug market.

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Recent Work from PORTAL

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The Impact of Semantics in Medicines Regulation

Costa E, Kesselheim AS - Journal of Law, Medicine, & Ethics

  • Innovation Incentives and Competition
  • Regulation and Clinical Evidence
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Delisted Patents on Pharmaceuticals, 1998-2024

Kirby-Rivera L, Feldman WB, Kim M, Kosmopoulou G, Kesselheim AS, Tu SS - Journal of Law, Medicine, & Ethics

  • Innovation Incentives and Competition
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Delays in Access to Generic Semaglutide Point to Key Missing Pieces in Canada’s Drug Approval System

Eisenkraft Klein D, Kesselheim AS - Health Policy

  • Innovation Incentives and Competition
  • Regulation and Clinical Evidence
Canada approved its first generic semaglutide nearly four months after market exclusivity expired, with delays arising from the absence of clear standards for demonstrating equivalence between fully synthetic generics and the brand-name product. Regulators should publish equivalence standards so manufacturers can build the required evidence into their initial submissions, helping lower-cost alternatives reach patients sooner.
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