Ban Bets on Unfinished Clinical Trials

Prediction market contracts on whether ongoing late-stage clinical trials will meet their primary endpoints could undermine patient confidence, affect adherence, influence investigators’ assessment of subjective trial outcomes, and create strong incentives for insiders to leak confidential data. Financial exchanges, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and Congress should prohibit such contracts until trials are complete and results are public, and trial sponsors should impose strict trading restrictions on investigators and vendors.